This scenario blends fictional and non-fictional events as a precursor to direct US military action in Mexico in the summer/fall of 2035
5:50 AM August 2035:
AV 505 Highway
Mexico City, Mexico
The CIA annex inside the US Embassy was always very quiet this early in the morning. Soon enough the cubicles which line this 19th century building will be buzzing with the sounds of diplomacy. But in these early hours, the silence was golden. James Teeters, a retired career Army officer, was at the tail end of working the graveyard shift as a security contractor for the embassy. This was his 5th day working in a row, he would have caught a flight back to the States, but the embassy was getting ready for a large internal review of security. So he made one final round down the main hallway which divides the embassy compound into its various divisions. Teeters always would slowly walk past the CIA annex. The soundproof walls, made for a complete lack of noise, it also let Teeters sneak up to the glass and peer in. He felt like he was staring into another world. No longer aware of anyone else around him, he stared down the corridor that led to the CIA annex inside the embassy. He cupped his hands around his eyes to block the light leaking in and thought about what was beyond that ominous steel door and armed guard. Tonight there were no guards on duty. The CIA annex was built inside the US embassy’s main site, but the CIA had a dozen other black sites in Mexico, the Mexican government was only aware of a few.
His daydream stopped with the sound of a loud bang in the distance. Annoyed at the interruption, he thought it could have been anything at that moment, a car backfire, or maybe construction. As fast as it happened he almost immediately forgot it and checked around him to see if anyone had seen his window watching of the CIA annex. As he looked down to scan the ground in front of him, the distinct sound of AK gunfire popped into his ear. 15 years in combat all over the world burned that sound into his mind. As the frequency and violence increased, Teeters’ slow walks turned into a trot and then a run. As the sound of gunfire rang into the morning air, Teeters thought to himself,
“Whatever is going on over there I’m glad, I’m behind these walls.”
August 2035
The Mexican president is dead.
Killed in a massive truck bombing. The wreckage of his convoy litters the off-ramp leading from Mexico City International Airport on Highway 505, like a scene is out of a war zone in Pakistan smoke rises up from a blast crater, and fires from the burned-out vehicles still burn. This is not Pakistan. It is a whole lot closer to the United States.
The Mexican president’s plane had arrived shortly after 2 AM, the President was flying back from a secret meeting with European Union drug enforcement officials. As American officials in Washington and Mexicans across Mexico wake up with news of the death of their president. Details of the attack began to trickle out from sources in the federal police and military. Only a few hours later the Mexican government would announce plans for a joint European counter-narcotics agency ECNA. The agreements is based largely on the successful US–Mexico Combat Cartel Treaty which created the DHS BorderGuard and the joint military Task Force Hot Pepper.
The CCT2013 treaty allowed the use of law enforcement officers operating in Mexico to be backed up by military support for anti-cartel operations on the Mexican side of the border.
A posting on a message board shows a disturbing video of the attack shot from a distant vantage point, the video is from La voz de los Santos, the Cartel media wing. 24-hour cable news channels in the US and Mexico pick up the video and bring the shocking video released by the Cartels to the rest of the world. An initial loud explosion is heard from off camera, then a video zooms into a car bomb blast wreckage, and a brief but violent gun battle afterward is all captured on tape. The bomb is hidden in a large Toyota pickup truck parked above an overpass below the off-ramp to the airport, when the Presidential Motorcade drove under the overpass the truck bomb detonated. The nearly 3 tons of explosives in its bed collapsed the concrete overpass onto the leading security vehicles killing all inside. The President’s armored car took most of the damage, but survived it was unable to move as it was covered with concrete debris from the overpass. The president inside remained alive, but the car being unable to move created a security threat the president’s vehicle was immobile and in danger.
The blast stunned Mexican Secret Service agents who were unprepared for a heavy battle The secret service agents were outmatched, armed with submachine guns and limited ammo. Dazed and suffering from injuries from the blast they were overwhelmed by a heavily armed assault team of 50+ gunmen. The gunmen slice through the remained secret service agents, the firepower used is overwhelming, and were equipped with anti-tank rockets. The firefight lasts nearly 20 minutes over 40,000 rounds of ammunition are fired during this exchange. In the end, the cartel’s gunmen force the President from the armored car. The video then cuts to a close angle filmed at the scene, it shows the execution of the president along with his national security advisory on the highway road. The video is highly produced and fades to black with the last scene being the symbol of the Cartels and gunmen igniting the bodies of the dead, which are then left to burn.
A Federal quick reaction force responds to the attack by Black Hawk helicopter, they are stationed a short distance away at an Army barracks in the airport. The secrecy involved with the president’s trip had not alerted the airport commander, who was not alerted of the flight until that morning. The blast is heard from the airport within minutes but despite this, it takes the Federal Police nearly a hour to respond. By the Cartel gunmen fade into the streets fleeing in unmarked taxi cabs and on motorbikes. US intelligence officials notify the US President who is on vacation that the act is considered a coup attempted by the drug cartels to take power, which is played down by the political inner circle within the White House national security team. Instead, the US DOS should call an immediate meeting of the UN Security Council and begin the move to pass a resolution. The US contacts the Mexican State Department Joint Operations Center, which handles all visa and migration issues, and disputes the US intelligence suggesting that the Cartels are planning a coup, they admit that assistance is needed but play down the incident as an assassination, a terrorist act by the Cartels and not a part of a larger effort attempt to overthrow the government. At first, the US is caught off guard by their response, it’s only after a short time that US intelligence learns of the full scope of the corruption the Cartels have achieved, and their goals to create a narco-state in southern Mexico and defend it with a modern army. The depth truly how much the Mexican government is under the influence of the Cartels is staggering, 1 in 4 government officials across the board has taken money or is been pressured by the Cartels, and this includes civilian and military leadership.
The American Officials at the State Department are ordered by the US administration to contact the Mexican Army’s top generals who are secretly loyal to the Cartels and were largely bought off during the last four years by the Malveres organization. The US offered to allow the Mexican vice-president to leave the country for the safety of the United States. The generals use the deaths of two Mexican State governors in the south loyal to the president as a threat that the Cartels are indeed targeting the very top of the Mexican government, the vice president, himself could be next. Once he is in flight the Cartels and General’s plan is to seize control of the country and enact Marshall to law suspend the civilian government and then take control of the country using military force, once most of Mexico is under the control of the military, the Cartels will operate freely in the southern border region in exchange for peace and an end to the violence insurgence the cartels had been waging against the government, as the legalization of marijuana deeply cut into the main cash crop, the cartels continued to develop better chemical drug labs, developing a synthetic version of popular drugs, the military would oversee this quasi-legalized organization, which would then shield much of the Cartel’s leadership from extradition to other countries for drug trafficking conspiracy. As the military enforces a strict non-violence policy in the provinces where the vast majority of Mexican citizens live the hope is the end to violence will be welcomed by the people, and they will accept the de facto state of government until the military can hold elections and install the cartels into the government itself integrating them as a means to end the insurgency. The death of the president’s two greatest allies in the southern part of Mexico created a huge power vacuum. Without their fierce anti-cartel leadership over the next 24 hours, the majority of police and government officials believe the generals who claim that the entire matter is temporary and that the Mexican military forces hope to end the martial law declaration within the month.
Panic sets into the rank and file of the Mexican government, both state and federal officials and employees question the safety of their lives as dozens of critics of the cartels are put under house arrest. Instead of violence, the cartels employ the power of the government to oppress its internal threats. Those not loyal to the cartel’s new government begin to melt away from their police stations, offices, and army checkpoints as a stream of Cartel gunmen flood the streets of highway towns and cities in the southern states. They are successful in taking control of the streets, they set up roadblocks and start to process locals moving between checkpoints. Ex judicially killing anyone unwilling to accept their authority.
August 2033
2 years before the August coup attempt.
By 2033, increases in the US/Mexican border operations by the United States in the Northern Mexican states have been largely successful at the goals of dismantling smuggling networks of the largest cartels. This happened due to several factors, which combined to affect the leadership of the cartels who until this time feuded with each other. The legalization of cannabis in the US had a major effect on the cartel’s bottom line, with a temporary cash-flow problem, many of the factions within the cartels were unable to survive and were swallowed up by other organizations, As the cost of importing illegal drugs into the US overtook the cost of manufacturing them inside the cartels like any other business had to make moves to ensure their continued role in the drug trade or be priced out. As the shift in consumer habits and drug policy shifted, there was a surge in demand for other more illicit drugs, which were supplied from other international criminal organizations. Many of the cartels were not able to move into the US and instead sold to new markets in Eastern Europe and Africa where rising incomes created new sources of drug profits. Cartel groups that were not able to make deals internationally or operate inside the US were forced to align themselves with larger organizations to survive, The largest of these being the CJNG and their Malerves organization, who absorbed the Gulf cartel’s operations and territory deftly without any violence instead through a series of marriages and partnership agreements.
The CJNG goal was to create a narco-state where they could operate supplying the world with drugs and controlling a population using community organizations funded by drug profits. In order to do this Zetas had to dramatically shift their tactics and willingness to make political deals between weaker organizations which they would otherwise liquidate or absorb, this increase dramatically the amount of money and resources required to maintain control over the entire operation, aware of the weakness of becoming a top-heavy organization the CJNG divided the traffic routes evenly not to create an imbalance between the remaining northern cartels, despite the CJNG overwhelming strength they accepted less of a share compared to the total territory, allowing the smaller Tijuana cartel to control routes inside CJNG territory. This would have sparked a turf war in the past and killed dozens but the new cartels instead worked out a tax code where the Tijuana cartel continued to operate, this was important as it eliminated infighting between the northern cartels and returned their operations to the shadows and back alleyways of out of sight of the government. The solidarity between the northern cartels allowed them to grow the Melverves organization into a rival for the Mexican government. In order to secure the international ambitions of the CJNG reached out to the South American cartels.
The South American cartels were in much worse shape than their larger northern brothers. A brutal war with the Colombian government had dismantled and pacified the population of support for the cartels who became vilified and hunted. After the fall of the Escobar cartel, the remains of the southern cartels were forced to agree to terms handed down from the north, this shifted and realigned the balance of power between north and south drug organizations back to the north, who now exclusively controlled access into the US. The southern cartels suffered a further setback in the late 2010s when the disarmament of their main military patron FARC agreed to a peace deal with the Colombian government. FARC fragmented into dozens of criminal groups which returned to lives of crime and drug production, from the jungles all over the borders of Ecuador and Venezuela, the southern cartel’s sanctuaries unrooted. Unable to operate freely they were forced to relocate future into the jungles, greatly reducing their ability to influence the cities. mainly of those who had traditionally been weaker of the two international drug trafficking organizations,
While the effects of legalization on the US border were positive they have also had the side effect of creating new routes into Africa and Eastern Europe where demand for cocaine increases every year. The increase in supply to these new routes resulted in took stress of the US border situation, as the cartels shifted the major drug production and smuggling routes being pushed further south away from the US border.
DEA agents and Mexican Federal police observe entire organizations disappearing from surveillance as they are unable to follow the Cartels back across the river into Guatemala, where the DEA is in Central America. Reducing the number of drug deaths in northern Mexico and along the US border towns is seen as a victory for the US DEA, but by forcing the Cartels further south they are accelerating the Cartel’s abilities to destabilize countries like Peru and Guatemala which have weak state governments, sympathetic populations and high levels of corruption. From May 2012 to June 2013 these countries are silently invaded by Mexican drug cartels, with the backing of powerful former narcoa members of FARC. They kill off local drug smugglers and buy off the loyalty of the police. They become the safe havens for drug cartel leadership who conduct the cartel’s high-level operations now from outside of Mexico. While Mexico remains the primary recruitment area, with its massive Army, the new Cartel operates a mix of para-military militia-style training camps for smugglers and cartel gunmen. These camps straggle the border of Mexico and Guatemala. They also operate small military-style bases that contain warehouses filled with weapons and drugs, housing hundreds of paid full-time soldiers many of whom are deserting from the Mexican Army. These bases exist in over a dozen cartel-controlled provinces. These forces can swell to 25 thousand or more if needed by recruiting directly from the military.
Ciudad Hidalgo and Tecun Uman under complete control by the cartels.
The Cartels offer up to 5 times the military pay of even the highest officers in the Mexican Army. The lucrativeness of simply sitting out or working with the cartels sways several high-ranking generals in the Mexican military. They developed a plan to seize power from the civilian government and broker a deal to cede some territory in southern Mexico in exchange for the end to the Cartel’s war and assurances that the Cartels would join and support a military junta-style government.
The deal between the generals and the Cartels will not be uncovered until after the president is killed. The Mexican general’s retirement goes unnoticed by the US intelligence. Covertly the cartels reach out to about 500 special forces airborne and jungle warfare commandos the generals have selected who would be susceptible to a bribe, with the promise of drug money to pay for their families. The commandos join private military companies set up by the generals as cover and begin working on behalf of the cartels. The cartels also incorporate several hundred teams of sleeper gunmen who have passed through their militia training camps and are organized into smaller terrorist cells, operating in groups no larger than a few men. They plan to enter the US illegally and carry out attacks inside the US in response to any US action against the cartels. Despite the Cartels reaching into the upper echelons of the Mexican government it is no match for the combined military force of both the US and Mexican Army.
A successful six-month campaign spearheaded by US DEA and FBI agents, the Mexican Army, and US national guardsmen carried out these operations to weaken the Cartel’s ability to operate in the Northern part of Mexico and along the US border. A key goal is to stop the Cartel’s ability to make reprisals against the state government, the uncontrolled killing of civilians in and out of the government has a chilling effect on local populations who are fearfully supporting any anti-Cartel operations. Largely because of American military logistic support and controlling the flow of assault weapons and handguns crossing into Mexico. A few weeks after the president is in effect it is inflicting what appears to be serious damage to the 5 major drug cartel organizations. But the efforts of the US and Mexico are largely by this time only representing the truth, 20% of the cartel’s total trade routes are now routed into the United States, but nearly 60% of them are now sending the drugs to Europe instead. The increase of the US manpower on the border forces them to shift and major portion of their smuggling efforts further south, reworking smuggling routes from the US to Europe where demand for cocaine and methamphetamine has increased. The Cartel’s loss of a weapons source from the US is quickly filled by buying arms from the South American black market which offers them even more advanced and lethal hardware than could ever be smuggled in from the United States. The decision to become better armed is taken after the Cartels are pushed back by the US/Mexican action.
The Mexican President went on a media tour to the United States and Canada in 2011, and he openly a new approach to a long-standing Mexican policy of not allowing US military personnel on Mexican soil. The President asks for an international security force under the UN mandate to protect the Democratic State of Mexico, he states that Mexico is in danger of falling into civil war and could become the next Afghanistan, a breeding ground for narco-terrorists. Support in the United States increases shortly after media support the shifts in favor of US action and the US National Guard begins to deploy along the border with Mexico. This dramatically decreases the Cartel’s ability to smuggle drugs into the US. In addition, large domestic policy changes in the US in regard to drug control policy particularly with Marijuana severely reduce demand for black market marijuana undercutting the cash flow for the Cartels. This forces the Cartels to consolidate; exterminating smaller drug cartels operating in and throughout Mexico proper. The streamlining of the cartels after the first major drug war offense by the Mexican federal government from 2011 to 2013 resulted in the killing off a large number of mid to low-level cartel associates, these were largely beneficial to the leadership of the Cartels killing and arresting the weaker criminal organization only the strongest Cartels were able to threaten the government effectively enough to prevent arresting any senior level members. The consolidation of power between the 8 major cartels into 4 results in a more uniform, cunning, and cooperative criminal organization. The smaller more secretive cartels flee Mexico for safe havens across the border in El Salvador.
Several new cartel members rise up during this period as major cartel power figures are arrested or killed in the government raids. In the resulting power vacuum of street drug captains criminal crews fight with each other over land up for grabs until dozens of Cartel members are killed in military efficiency. CJNG who have largely avoided the attention of the federal government because of their capability to carry out equality brutal reprisals against the government step in from their sanctuaries in El Salvador to seize control of the entire Cartel operation, after a few brutal examples notably the murder of Cartel boss Jose Paili Gomez, the Cartels fall in line around CJNG who prove to be a capable leader. They organize and transform the Cartels from drug smuggling criminal syndicates, into alternative options for a style of government complete with a political and social services wing, their goal is to undermine the entire Mexican federal government and take revenge for pushing them out of Northern Mexico.
Cartel Breakdown 2024 Consolidation
Foreign Influence
In order to do this the Cartels form an internal policy review committee that hires Chinese research firms that present them with reports on how to leverage their vast cash currency reserves to sway popular support away from the federal government and to reshape their image. `They look at other para-military organizations who have dealt with similar environments all over the world such as IRA and Hamas, seeing similarities in their goals the Cartels create their own version of Hamas, Malverdes; The Cartels use their very own drug trafficking patron Saint Malverdes as the name for this organization. Over the next 6 months, the Malverdes organization spent millions of dollars of drug money funding social programs and construction in the southern border areas of Mexico. Using drug profits to improve the local communities is a tactic adopted by the Taliban which uses opiate trafficking as a means to fund their insurgency. The Cartels spend more money per person on the average yearly salary of an employee in these southern areas. By paying for services the Mexican government is unable to provide due to security concerns. The Cartels create a problem where there is none and exhort and provide security from the very drug violence they are creating. They create so-called violence-free zones, which trick people into moving to these locations, all the Cartels do is stop attacking in these regions, this provides the illusion of security to many poor Mexicans. The money has its effect as civilians begin to support the cartels who they view no longer as a threat but as socialist political parties in the same vein as Chavistas in Venezuela. Because of the direct infusion of drug money, the Cartels gained populace support unlike anything before. The federal government is unable to effectively exercise control in this region because of it. They are unable to prevent the Cartels from improving the regions which include the border to Guatemala and El Salvador. But the cartel’s only goal is forming a proxy narco-state within Mexico similar to the tribal areas of Pakistan where they can operate freely and control the border between Mexico and El Salvador as the new headquarters of the Cartels. As these cartels go deeper into hiding they become harder to track, and the next generations of smarter internet savvy leaders are able to avoid Mexican Intelligence Agents.
They rewrite cartel policy; killing in open and violent attacks is out and is replaced with a slicker guerrilla media campaign that levels anti-government slogans. Cartel leadership attempts to and successfully contact organizations like Hezbollah in the Middle East via the Internet, they give advice on how to move beyond a criminal organization to a political and economic movement which can force the government to bend to the cartel’s terms. The goal is that by swaying popular support in areas where the cartels control will force the President to negotiate on their terms. If their demands are not met. The cartels will resume acts of terrorism to force the federal government to deal with provinces that they cannot control. The cartels control the street and in exchange for no violence, the Cartels will gain autonomous rule, which would essentially be a crimocracy where no constitutional Mexican law would be recognized. The Cartels go one step further by securing and buying off most of the senior Mexican military, when the time comes they will be ready to recognize the cartels as the legitimate government and provide the Cartels with the military strength needed to secure the cities and if need be repeal a US-led military action which would remove them and restore the official government.
May 2025
Two months prior to the attack on the president’s motorcade. The Cartel’s counterattack begins. The drug cartels’ counterattack started in January when larger numbers of the Mexican Intelligence Service agents were targeted and killed, the drug cartels dismantled MIS one agent at a time. January 2025 to May 2025 marks the bloodiest time in the history of the MIS. 128 MIS agents are killed, a combination of bombings and murders. With the deaths of so many of its field agents MIS’s ability to penetrate the Cartels and glean actionable intelligence is decimated. It becomes limited largely to drug informants willing to cooperate and most of these are in fact double agents planted by the Cartels to feed MIS bad intel. Mexico lacks the electronics signals intelligence capability the US has and is unable to effectively deal with the Cartels operating inside and or outside of Mexico. The situation deteriorates.
The killing of the intelligence agents is a wake-up call for many in league with the Cartels, while MIS involvement with the Cartels was largely kept secret it was well known among all of the militaries on the payroll of the Cartels when the senior military leadership learned about these killings it sends shock waves through the Mexican officers core, despite the deals the generals believed they had in place they could still be killed if they are not safe no one is. As the United States intelligence community (CIA/DIA/NSA) witnessed the downfall of their Mexican counterparts just across its borders they pressed the US State Department to push the Mexican government to get involved in direct operations rather than support. The Mexican Intelligence Service became ineffective and unable to support even the remaining loyal members of the Mexican army and the federal government was still willing to fight the drug cartels.
The CIA is secretly authorized by the Mexican federal government to begin operations in Mexico in June 2015. Mexico’s government had long resented a US military or intelligence force operating inside of Mexico, a remnant of distrust dating back all the way to the Mexican-American war in the 19th century. But with the inability of the MIS to help the military track down key Cartel members and the very public killing of these agents has an impact on civilian support for the federal government’s battle against the Cartels. Changes in their attitudes resulted in a secret meeting held 2 months before the August trip to Europe. At this meeting the remains of the MIS and Mexican government allowed the CIA to operate in Mexico. They limit their role to supporting the Mexican Army military and do not allow them to use force on Mexican soil. But they are given access to Mexican telecommunications and cellular data which proves to be a goldmine for the CIA to track down and target Cartel members. At the start of June, the CIA hit the ground running, they have been waiting patiently for orders from the President, they have already assessed the situation in Mexico and know that its lack of legal authority to enter Mexico limits its capabilities. It informs the President of this who then authorizes them, to secretly violate the security agreement and begin sending teams of Intelligence Support Activity agents into Mexico despite Mexico’s official refusal to allow military personnel on Mexican soil. The ISA teams are giving fake documents and pose as South American businessmen, they enter Mexico covertly in commercial air flights from South America to avoid detection with orders to track cartel operations and gain access to intelligence that would aid the US in any military action against Mexico.
The Mexican Army lacks the powerful intelligence-gathering capabilities of the US and is unable to keep critical information from the Cartels, so they quickly become unreliable for the Pentagon to use as a source for planning. The Mexican Army is sucked between looking limp and unable to control their own country. The CIA over the years of hunting Al Qaeda in Pakistan has drastically increased their abilities to target and hunt down terrorist networks and individual state enemies. The CIA was quick to adapt its intelligence gathering special access programs and trade-craft to hunting down cartel members who are much less the adversary that the Taliban had been and often had no idea the CIA was tracking them. They frequently used cell phones and the internet to communicate with each other from their havens in El Salvador. Within a month, an established network of middle-tier gunmen, smugglers, and upper-level members is mapped out using these programs. They create a spider web of the cartel associates via internet and cellular data mining tracing and cross referencing names, phone numbers, and internet traffic to GPS locations allowing for the CIA to gain good insight into the locations of wanted cartel members even in El Salvador. They pass this intelligence on to Mexican federal police and army forces who slowly start to impact cartel operations in Southern Mexico. The US also began to advise the Mexican Army and Police loyalists on new counterinsurgency tactics. The US created an Aid package for Mexico which includes weapons and civil engineering projects. The US increase in funding for the use of federal forces from outside drug cartel provinces is effective in rooting out cartel associates and disrupting operations. The pushes into southern Mexico by the federal government are met with warnings by the drug Cartels who do not consider this to be their own. The Mexican government will not be allowed to root out the cartel camps and bases that now dot the border. The US offers air support but is refused by the Mexican Air Force general, who is also secretly on the Cartel’s payroll, the US with its hands tied is forced to remain on the sidelines only providing signals intelligence and limited aerial recon support.
The Mexican Army despite the US funding is still widely viewed as corrupt and is estimated to be as high as 60% of their million-strong ranks are rated as unfit, either for connections to, or working directly for the cartels. As an increasingly smaller loyal Mexican government begins to fight an increasingly better equipped and trained cartel organization, it forces the Mexican military to push the cartels further south away from the US border on paper the Mexican military is seen as winning the war, but the truth is largely the Cartels are avoiding open conflict in favor of undermining the system from the inside out. The increased pressure from the government has the effect of reducing the violence and trafficking into the US and is seen as a quick victory against the Cartels. In the US the majority of Americans believe the threat is gone, but US military planners are keen on the situation and continue to monitor it.
As the violence ramps down over the next month despite the deaths of MIS agents, many key Cartel members are arrested. The deaths of these key members scare many members of the cartel into rethinking their overall plan. The cartels have already moved on having switched major routes into Europe via South America as early as 2012, where an influx of demand for cocaine has far exceeded the risk of transport into the US. As the Malverdes organization is used to spend the cartel’s cash reserves they begin to better equip themselves to defend against the Mexican government’s attacks. The cash-strapped Venezuela which the US claims are covertly is willing to sell sophisticated light infantry weapons to the cartels via government members who are loyal to the cartels. The cartel’s money buys them access to the Army depots of several South American governments through their relationships with dozens of ex-FARC members who have abandoned or were exiled from the organization after the peace deal with the Colombian government. Venezuela and Bolivian military and intelligence networks, all have contact with the cartel-controlled Mexican military over this period where they are introduced to Hezbollah and Russian SVR agents which broker arms for cash, created from drug profits from cocaine smuggling and weapons sales.
The South American bloc of countries opposed to the US economic domination of the West, saw a chance to undermine the US close to its border. Their stranglehold on southern Mexico convinces many foreign governments to aid them which is viewed as support in their fight against the US. Venezuela secretly supported the cartels by sending small arms and weapons to fight the US-Mexican government forces. Venezuela intelligence services officials met with Malverdes drug cartel associates several times between 2016 and 2020 over this year the cartels funneled millions of dollars of drug money into development projects in Bolivia and Venezuela, hotels, and a soccer stadium. The drug cartels wish to purchase heavy weapons from China or Russia and see the Venezuelan state government as the middleman between the cartels and the weapons exporters. The cartels come to the agents with a laundry list of sophisticated weapons from SA-20 anti-aircraft systems, BMP-3, and MiG-35 fighter jets. The cartels are willing to pay cash and the Venezuelan agents return home to discuss the deal.
Attempting to harness the power of a joint political and social message the cartels form Malverdes a political organization designed as a community outreach to stop the very drug violence the cartels are creating. This does not however stop the cartel’s operations against the government which they now view as political and ideological threats and competing with it. They secretly use Malverdes as a Either way once the civilian government is overthrown, the military must quickly act to secure the police and local security. After the death of the president, the cartel organization attacked other senior government officials, killing two governors in the Juarez and Mexico City provinces over the same night as the president. Over the next week, 24 other federal government judges and officials were killed. Before the UN can react, the Cartel government forces seize power capture Mexican Cable and telecom buildings inside Mexico City, and begin to kill or kidnap anyone who attempts to prevent them from taking power. After 24 hours they begin broadcasting a series of produced videos that claim the legitimacy of the Malverdes organization for taking control of the government. Their goal is a socialist revolution to improve the conditions for the lower class and the only way is to take control of the Mexican government which they paint as a pawn of the US. Over the next 72 hours, the situation becomes highly fluid as the federal government officials choose sides as drug money buys off many and results in the government being unable to aid local state police who go home in fear of cartel organizations attacking them. Government officials flee their townships and police left to attempt to maintain order, they are overwhelmed by cartel gunmen who take to the streets and begin killing policemen and anyone not given permission to be on the streets, this effectively seizes power in the streets. Civilians in local government are intimidated into embracing the Cartels who over the last 6 months have improved conditions on the surface while conducting a brutal campaign of silencing dissent in southern Mexico. Local populations are misled into believing the cartels are preventing the violence and fear using the Hezbollah model. The cartels buy influence and control of the military which controls the southern portion of Mexico.
As Cartel seizure of power becomes apparent US forces on the other side of the border react by closing the entire US border to Mexico. Over the next 24 hours, the US rapidly increased logistical support to the remaining loyal Mexican army officials who were fighting on the street in Mexico City. With the major federal government disrupted by the assassination the federal government is unable to grant the US the ability to enter Mexico to assist, this must come from the UN, and this will require many more days in which the Cartels are able to liberate and deploy more defensive weapons.
In the Next 24 hours: The Cartel’s military generals take control of large portions of the military. They communicate to the UN international organization that they are in control of the security of Mexico, including the border crossings, the US and EU protest the military’s claims, saying that they are monitoring a coup by the Cartels using military generals they control. The civilian federal government in Mexico is unable to function in the south. The US army aware of the situation is restricted by military treaties that do not allow them to enter Mexico and must wait until the UN has authorized it, the US knows Russia is watching and waiting for them once again to act outside of the UN. The Cartel government sends to its allies in South America intelligence groups that they have control of local streets and effective control of nearly all the provinces of Mexico.
Cartel Est. Military Forces as of Sept 2035:
Soldiers: 25,000
Basic Trained light-armed infantry. Largely ex-Mexican military/police discharged over the last 10-15 years; these are full-time cartel protection forces operating from cartel garrisons or strongholds throughout the country. They are dedicated, often with criminal records, and have been working for the cartels for a number of years. Comparable they have light training and are able to function as a modern threat. They lack stamina and are largely a defensive protection force guarding drug & weapon storage sites.
Small and High Caliber Assault Rifles; Semi-Automatic Pistols, and Light Machine guns. Automatic Grenade Launchers. Large Caliber sniper rifles. Anti-tank rockets. Mortars and land mines. Limited effectiveness most are not unknown to intelligence agencies so they can mix easily with civilian populations and cross the border to conduct asymmetric warfare against US forces. They lack sophisticated weapons and training but are willing to work for money, most have criminal records and have been in the Mexican prison system or the US prison system. Light armed with pistols and assault rifles. Sniper rifles. IEDs and explosive devices. Car bombs. 200+ Los Zetas Special Operations Unit Assault rifles. Submachine guns, heavy caliber sniper rifles, anti-tank missiles, mines. Shoulder-fired Surface-to-air missiles, mortars, and explosives. IED and insurgency weapons. artels have access to a supply of 105mm and 155mm artillery shells, in addition to 60mm and 90mm mortars, and various other HE munitions to make and fashion all manner of IED and ICED. Cartels operates various make and models SUV and sedans which can be used for car bombs or as technical vehicles mounting various medium to heavy weapons.
Heavy Weapons
The seizure of the Mexican Las Primas Armory outside of Mexico City has given the cartels access to several heavy armored units which allows them to deploy them around key parts of Mexico City and Southern Mexico over the last 72 hours. 12 M2A3 Bradley IFV and 18 M60A3 Patton MBT, and several M1A2 Abrams have been removed from the Armory. Mexico received these heavy tanks from the US as aid to fight the Cartels. But the Cartels supported by rogue elements in the military have seized them and are controlling them and have deployed a number of MD-500 helicopter gunships with civilian and military markings. USAF AWACS tracked what they believe was as many as 4 MiG-35s which entered Mexican airspace from the south along the Pacific Ocean, and were lost somewhere around south Mexico, it is believed the Cartels operating these aircraft purchased from The
The foreign governments backing the Cartels pour in advanced weapons in exchange for cash which the Cartels have billions of, the cartels’ goal is to greatly increase their Arming the Cartels serves several purposes, it forced the US to refocus its goals much closer to home, allowing various South American governments to gain economic control over themselves. Venezuela and Bolivar both send arms to Mexico, but they have to do it covertly over time. It takes several weeks for the ships to arrive from Venezuela. The South American governments had long ago decided to aid the Cartels by siding and allowing the cocaine cartels in South The Dirty Bomb Threat includes a Condor II SRBM with a mobile launcher station which was stolen during the 2001 crisis in Argentina and never recovered. Several kilograms of
Precursors to US action in Mexico: -Drug Cartels launch major cross-border attacks on the United States seeking other rival drug organization members or for retaliation against actions inside Mexico, attacking a city municipality inflicting a large number of civilian casualties, similar to the Mumbai terrorist attacks in 2008 this would create large enough backlash to move US into acting and intervening in Mexico. -Mexico Drug Cartel involvement with terrorist activities in US. It is not outside of reason to assume that beyond strategy and intelligence exchanges between Iranian Hezbollah agents and drug cartel members in South America to assume that Iran may have questioned the cartel’s ability to function as a non-state actor in retaliating against the United States. If Mexico’s government is unable to prevent this or is unable to stop cartel organizations from smuggling NBC devices or other dangerous material into the United States, this would cause the US to act to dislodge the cartels and remove their abilities to do that.
US Military Response Options:
-Tactical Missile Strike and Limited Air Campaign. Followed by multi-prong land invasions from northern, eastern, and western parts of Mexico. An airborne assault using 101st and 82nd Airborne to secure Northern provinces along the Texas/Mexico border. Heavy armor and mechanized troops invaded from California along the eastern coast of Mexico. Invading from the east amphibious assault by the 22nd 23rd 24th MEU SOC, followed by a massive mechanized infantry, armor, artillery, and unmanned forces followed through using US Army 1st Armored. The military enforced Marshall law on the behavior of the Mexican government in exile in the US. The goal is to restore legal government to Mexico and defeat the cartel-run organizations in the south that are attempting to undermine the government.
-Limited Missile Strike, Special Operations use, and domination of air space prolonged counter-insurgency. Using military forces to secure of border assisting federal border agents. Then continue the campaign with unmanned drone missile strikes and limited manned commando raids into Mexico targeting Cartel. -Military buildup in the region, moving a large number of National Guard forces to the border. Use limited unmanned and manned air sorties to create a buffer zone along the border. Remain in a defensive posture, ensuring Mexico is isolated militarily and economically until UN support is gained and a multi-national government can restore the federal government of Mexico.
-Surprise shock and awe coordinated multi-regional air strike with limited deployment of cruise missiles to attack long-range targets deep into Mexico. The surprise attack of military and cartel operations targets, including Los Zetas, and senior leadership in hidden in El Salvador and retreated back into US airspace. This will allow limited response from the Cartels which have a limited capability for conventional warfare. US Army will deploy long-range surface-to-surface missiles(ATACAMS) with follow-on military ground forces to secure townships attacked and clear street by street for cartel members. Military targets not loyal to the government selected by CIA/MIS and Cartel safe houses, and strongholds are attacked. The initial attack included dozens of large training camps and militant safehouses. Malverdes recruitment centers and non-loyal police headquarters. The CIA develops a target list based on the cartel’s network of weapons storage warehouses and drug processing faculties most of which is buried in bunker-style underground labs, these include the methamphetamine super labs cooking tons of Crystal Meth. No Cartel targets are off limits this includes residences of Cartel members and mixed-used facilities are also targeted.
Reactions and responses to US action in Mexico.
– Mexico’s military fractures dividing between forces loyal to the government and forces loyal to cartel influence. The cartels use terrorism and attack the government with a mix of military and asymmetric warfare forces. Attacks occur on both sides of the border, with limited attacks in the US, but major assaults could be launched inside Mexico’s territory targeting all types of industries.
-Popular support for the Mexican military erodes as civilian casualties mount against federal government actions against the Cartels. Depending on variables such as rebuilding and support for local communities. The Cartels can use their political wings to sway the population towards in their favor, the cartels can gain control over the government over time using elections to place cartel members in control of the government. 19103